The Potential-Problem Analysis

The Potential-Problem Analysis

The Potential-Problem Analysis is a way of mapping out potential problems and making sure you pro-actively deal with the most serious ones.

The method consists of 8 steps:

Step 1. Define the objectives

What are the things which absolutely must happen to successfully implement the solution? Make a list of all objectives, without which the project will likely fail.

Step 2. Generate a list of potential problems

Identify everything that could possibly go wrong. What are some of the weak spots in the plan? What are the moments where problems might occur? What could prevent you from reaching an objective?

If you have trouble identifying potential problems, use thinking techniques to generate ideas. You could, for instance, use the Time Traveller technique. Imagine yourself in the future, looking back on the project. What went wrong?

Step 3. Identify the specific nature of each problem

For every potential problem you listed, answer the following four questions.
– What?
– Where?
– When?
– To what extent?

Step 4. Determine the amount of risk associated with each problem

For each potential problem, evaluate the potential seriousness and the probability that it will occur.

Select problems that involve high or moderate risk. Low-risk problems can be ignored for now (as it is rather impractical to take every tiny thing that could possibly go wrong into account).

Step 5. Search for possible causes of each problem

Use your experience and good judgement and write down what could cause the problems you listed.

Step 6. Estimate the probability of occurrence

How likely is each undesirable event to happen? Look at the possible causes and estimate the probability of each problem occurring. Use percentages.

Step 7. Develop means for preventing causes or minimising their effects

Generate solutions in advance. What can you do to eliminate the potential causes altogether? Can you reduce the likelihood of the listed problems rearing their ugly heads? What is the likelihood of each problem occurring after you’ve taken these preventive actions?

Step 8. Develop contingency plans

Even though you’ve described some preventive actions to be taken, it’s good to plan for disaster. Do some worst-case planning and specify exactly what actions will be taken if the problem occurs anyway. What will you do if your preventive actions are not entirely successful?

Preventive actions are usually less costly than contingency plans, so never skip step 7 in favour of step 8.